- Agreements arrived at between Israelis and Palestinians will be the result of direct negotiations between the parties.
- Those negotiations will be supported and helped by outside states committed to non-intervention with respect to substantive outcomes but very active programs in strengthening process mechanisms for resolving disputes and developing common interests.
- Ironically, the main facilitator will be Saudi Arabia and not the U.S., Canada or the Nordics.
- Whether under Republicans or Democrats, but with a loud voice by Republicans and a more subdued voice by Democrats, America will continue to support Israel and not hold Israel accountable for any expansion of its settlements in the West Bank.
- The cessation of creation of new settlements by Israel will be a direct result of pressure on Israel by Arab Gulf states to ensure such decisions cannot be made unilaterally.
- America will gradually become a support player in pushing the peace agenda, but will remain the main player in backstopping Israel’s security in spite of the divide between America and Israel over America’s rejoining the JCPOA.
- After the International Criminal Court (ICC) decided last week by a 2-1 vote giving the Chief Prosecutor jurisdiction in investigating claims against Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, East Jerusalem and the West Bank, even though Palestine is not recognized as an independent state under the Rome Statute and, therefore, capable of delegating to the ICC jurisdiction over criminal matters, and even though Israel has never signed onto the Rome Statute, the politicized ICC’s actions do play an important role in pushing Israeli authorities to crack down severely on settler violence against Palestinians and stopping the creation of new settlements in Palestine.
- Israel will remain part of Central Command covering the Middle East, helping enhance Israel’s sense of security.
- Civil society initiatives will become the main initiators and pioneers in improving Israel-Palestine relations.
- The focus will not be on trying to overcome substantive differences but on creating processes for ensuring differences are represented, allowed to be articulated, and that democratic processes for decision-making are strengthened in each polity.
- Full and accurate information-sharing will be considered a primary foundational building block.
- Whether on public opinion or on economic, cultural and political costs of alternatives, the emphasis will be on an effort to try to ensure public expectations do not outrun advances on the ground or too far behind and out os synch with innovative steps.
- The emphasis will be removed from the intractability of the conflict generally to a focus and resolution of problems that are tractable in the belief that success not only breeds success but trust as well.
- Such an emphasis on cooperation, coordination and process efforts needs to be made close to the ground and with a good understanding of the stages in which the decision-making process works, especially the aftermath of decisions which require further victories; process does not end with consultation and decision-making, but has to include methods for encouraging acceptance, faith in the grounds for decision-making and accountable follow-throughs.
- Civil society organizations that cooperate in this process will bracket their substantive convictions, not in their own programming, but in the cooperative horizontal networks of communication established to advance the process agenda.
- More overall organization will be required for such coordinated network cooperation without any hierarchy of leaders or procedural rules but, rather, the commitment by many to an open and honest and accountable process to provide the frame for cooperation.
- Issues that are toxic will be avoided.
- Such substantive cooperation can begin focused on issues on which there is already a shared common interest, such as protection of the environment, ensuring public health and developing communications and technology suitable for the electronic age of communications.
- The process system will also focus on how legislation in each jurisdiction, executive and administrative modes, and an independent judicial system can serve to strengthen such transparent and accountable processes.
- More down to earth cooperation on strategies, tactics and logistics will need to be developed to enhance such civil society engagement and cooperation.
- Money will be needed to foster such a network and to channel funds to civil society agencies to advance such an agenda; an informal network of key agencies will be formed to advise funders on those agencies engaged in such efforts without pushing the claims of any one of them.
- More efforts will be used to attract domestic sources of funding from civil society economic organizations to complement the inflow of funds from abroad, not simply to broaden funding sources, but to strengthen the involvement of this crucial segment of civil society in such efforts.
- Except for national identity within Israel, the second-class status of Israeli Palestinians will continue to improve at a steady rate,
- The funding of education, health and welfare needs of registered Palestinian refugees currently through UNRWA will be merged and donated funds will flow through the governments in Ramallah and Gaza.
- This will be especially important for improving the state school system as UNRWA schools continue to win awards for excellence, namely the International School Award of the British Council.
- A new Jewish-Palestinian party in Israel formed in the twenties began to grow, acquire voter support and eventually join part of a coalition government.
- The result of Palestinian Israeli increased involvement in mainstream politics will shift the balance in the Knesset from right to create the basis for a coalition in the centre and left-of-centre.
- Israel will eventually appoint a Palestinian as president.
- China’s global ambition built on ports, highways and pipelines for the expansion of its supply chain and distribution empire, and the expanded use of advanced Chinese technology will help in forging links between Gaza and Israel as well as between both polities and China.
- Jews will cease establishing new settlements in Palestine.
- In the twenties, Israel discarded the policy of sacrificing peace in return for the acquisition of more land.
- On the domestic scene, an agreement between the right and the left-of-centre in Israel will be made to cancel establishing new settlements and the policy of postponing peace to facilitate the acquisition of more land, in return of left-of-centre support for retaining East Jerusalem and annexing approximately half of Area C.
- After receding in its score on the International Democracy Index, Israel will reverse course and actively pursue policies to improve and enhance democratic behaviour.
- The whole process receives a kick start with systematic and focused efforts to improve democratic index scores in each of the polities.
- Progress will be marked by an accelerating decline in violence from all sides and in all areas.
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Howard Adelman 