Iranian Capitulation

Iranian Capitulation

by

Howard Adelman

Neither side will call the deal “capitulation”. That would be politically incorrect and only damage the working of the deal. But how else can one characterize the terms and conditions of the parameters of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action between Iran and the P5+1? Afterwards, I have included the White House summary of the key terms of the deal, but let me first highlight some of them.

  1. The principle that there is no deal until everything is agreed is retained; there will be no lifting of sanctions until all the technical details are worked out by 30 June 2015.
  2. The number of installed centrifuges that Iran will be permitted to keep is indeed in the 6,000 to 6.500 range as expected – specifically 6,104 – but, surprisingly, all of them, rather than just two thirds will be the older style much slower IR-1s.
  3. Only 5,060 centrifuges will be allowed to be used to enrich uranium, lower than expected.
  4. The enrichment of uranium is restricted to 3.67% not 5%.
  5. The restrictions apply for 15 rather than just 10 years.
  6. The stockpile of 3.67% enriched uranium is restricted to only 300 kg, and that restriction is applied for 15 years.
  7. Excess centrifuges and production facilities will be mothballed under strict IAEA supervision but available as replacement parts.
  8. Iran will not be allowed to build any new enrichment facilities for 15 years.
  9. The breakout time of at least a year to resume greater enrichment is restricted to 10 years, but it is not clear why this is the case since all the other key provisions to make sure the breakout period is at least a year remain in place.
  10. Surprisingly, Fordow is to be decommissioned and re-purposed as a nuclear research centre and cannot be converted back into a uranium enrichment facility for 15 years; further, during those 15 years, Iran cannot undertake research on nuclear enrichment.
  11. In effect, Natanz will be the only nuclear enrichment facility restricted to using only IR-1 centrifuges for 10 years after which the more advanced centrifuges can be employed but only within strict guidelines for another five years, guidelines which ensure the breakout time remains at least at one year.
  12. Monitoring will not only include Natanz and Fordow, but the whole chain of production, including access to uranium mines and mills for 25 years and centrifuge production facilities for 20 years.
  13. Arak will be redesigned and rebuilt in accordance with P+1 specifications and will not be permitted to produce any weapons-grade plutonium; the core will be destroyed.
  14. Spent fuel, as expected, will be shipped abroad, though this seemed to be a last minute sticking point.
  15. Iran cannot reprocess or even conduct research on reprocessing spent fuel indefinitely.
  16. Iran can only retain sufficient heavy water for its own needs, will not be able to store excess heavy water and will not be able to develop new heavy water production facilities for 15 years.
  17. Most surprising to me, Iran did not win a single concession on sanctions relief. Relief will only come after verification of all the terms of the deal and new UN resolutions will be passed to cover areas of the deal not previously covered.
  18. As emerged near the end of the negotiations, the sanctions will have a snap back provision so that they will be automatically re-imposed if the P5+1 determine that Iran is not keeping to any and all the terms of the deal.
  19. The extensive transparency and inspection system will continue for 25 years and even after that Iran will retain such inspections under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
  20. There is no specific provision preventing proliferation arrangements between Iran and countries such as North Korea, but the terms of the agreement make the prospect of such discussions moot. As expected, the deal did not provide access to Iran’s missile development program and the military dimensions of its nuclear program or do anything about Iran’s support for terrorism, its efforts to become a regional power or its aspiration to eliminate Israel from the Middle East, butS. sanctions on Iran for terrorism, human rights abuses, and ballistic missiles will remain in place. Wow!

To say this is an enormous foreign policy achievement of the Obama administration is an understatement. At the same time, when Israeli leaders insist a military attack on Iran’s facilities remain a possibility (they always theoretically will) or that the negotiations must include recognition of Israel’s right to exist, we enter the arena of cuckoo land and it is embarrassing.

The details of those parameters follow.

Parameters for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Nuclear Program

Below are the key parameters of a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program that were decided in Lausanne, Switzerland. These elements form the foundation upon which the final text of the JCPOA will be written between now and June 30, and reflect the significant progress that has been made in discussions between the P5+1, the European Union, and Iran. Important implementation details are still subject to negotiation, and nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. We will work to conclude the JCPOA based on these parameters over the coming months.

Enrichment

  • Iran has agreed to reduce by approximately two-thirds its installed centrifuges. Iran will go from having about 19,000 installed today to 6,104 installed under the deal, with only 5,060 of these enriching uranium for 10 years. All 6,104 centrifuges will be IR-1s, Iran’s first-generation centrifuge.enrichment
  • Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium over 3.67 percent for at least 15 years.
  • Iran has agreed to reduce its current stockpile of about 10,000 kg of low-enriched
  • uranium (LEU) to 300 kg of 3.67 percent LEU for 15 years.
  • All excess centrifuges and enrichment infrastructure will be placed in IAEA monitored storage and will be used only as replacements for operating centrifuges and equipment.
  • Iran has agreed to not build any new facilities for the purpose of enriching uranium for 15 years.
  • Iran’s breakout timeline – the time that it would take for Iran to acquire enough fissile material for one weapon – is currently assessed to be 2 to 3 months. That timeline will be extended to at least one year, for a duration of at least ten years, under this framework.

Iran will convert its facility at Fordow so that it is no longer used to enrich uranium

  • Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium at its Fordow facility for at least 15 years.
  • Iran has agreed to convert its Fordow facility so that it is used for peaceful purposes only – into a nuclear, physics, technology, research center.
  • Iran has agreed to not conduct research and development associated with uranium enrichment at Fordow for 15 years.
  • Iran will not have any fissile material at Fordow for 15 years.
  • •Almost two-thirds of Fordow’s centrifuges and infrastructure will be removed. The remaining centrifuges will not enrich uranium. All centrifuges and related infrastructure will be placed under IAEA monitoring.

Iran will only enrich uranium at the Natanz facility, with only 5,060 IR-1 first-generation centrifuges for ten years.

  • Iran has agreed to only enrich uranium using its first generation (IR-1 models) centrifuges at Natanz for ten years, removing its more advanced centrifuges.
  • Iran will remove the 1,000 IR-2M centrifuges currently installed at Natanz and place them in IAEA monitored storage for ten years.
  • Iran will not use its IR-2, IR-4, IR-5, IR-6, or IR-8 models to produce enriched uranium for at least ten years. Iran will engage in limited research and development with its advanced centrifuges, according to a schedule and parameters which have been agreed to by the P5+1.
  • For ten years, enrichment and enrichment research and development will be limited to ensure a breakout timeline of at least 1 year. Beyond 10 years, Iran will abide by its enrichment and enrichment R&D plan submitted to the IAEA, and pursuant to the JCPOA, under the Additional Protocol resulting in certain limitations on enrichment capacity.

Inspections and Transparency

  • The IAEA will have regular access to all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, including to Iran’s enrichment facility at Natanz and its former enrichment facility at Fordow, and including the use of the most up-to-date, modern monitoring technologies.
  • Inspectors will have access to the supply chain that supports Iran’s nuclear program. The new transparency and inspections mechanisms will closely monitor materials and/or components to prevent diversion to a secret program.
  • Inspectors will have access to uranium mines and continuous surveillance at uranium mills, where Iran produces yellowcake, for 25 years.
  • Inspectors will have continuous surveillance of Iran’s centrifuge rotors and bellows production and storage facilities for 20 years. Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing base will be frozen and under continuous surveillance.
  • All centrifuges and enrichment infrastructure removed from Fordow and Natanz will be placed under continuous monitoring by the IAEA.
  • A dedicated procurement channel for Iran’s nuclear program will be established to monitor and approve, on a case by case basis, the supply, sale, or transfer to Iran of certain nuclear-related and dual use materials and technology – an additional transparency measure.
  • Iran has agreed to implement the Additional Protocol of the IAEA, providing the IAEA much greater access and information regarding Iran’s nuclear program, including both declared and undeclared facilities.
  • Iran will be required to grant access to the IAEA to investigate suspicious sites or allegations of a covert enrichment facility, conversion facility, centrifuge production facility, or yellowcake production facility anywhere in the country.
  • Iran has agreed to implement Modified Code 3.1 requiring early notification of construction of new facilities.
  • Iran will implement an agreed set of measures to address the IAEA’s concerns regarding the Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) of its program.

Reactors and Reprocessing

  • Iran has agreed to redesign and rebuild a heavy water research reactor in Arak, based on a design that is agreed to by the P5+1, which will not produce weapons grade plutonium, and which will support peaceful nuclear research and radioisotope production.
  • The original core of the reactor, which would have enabled the production of significant quantities of weapons-grade plutonium, will be destroyed or removed from the country.
  • Iran will ship all of its spent fuel from the reactor out of the country for the reactor’s lifetime.
  • Iran has committed indefinitely to not conduct reprocessing or reprocessing research and development on spent nuclear fuel.
  • Iran will not accumulate heavy water in excess of the needs of the modified Arak reactor, and will sell any remaining heavy water on the international market for 15 years.
  • Iran will not build any additional heavy water reactors for 15 years.

Sanctions

  • •Iran will receive sanctions relief, if it verifiably abides by its commitments.
  • •U.S. and E.U. nuclear-related sanctions will be suspended after the IAEA has verified that Iran has taken all of its key nuclear-related steps. If at any time Iran fails to fulfill its commitments, these sanctions will snap back into place.
  • The architecture of U.S. nuclear-related sanctions on Iran will be retained for much of the duration of the deal and allow for snap-back of sanctions in the event of significant non-performance.
  • All past UN Security Council resolutions on the Iran nuclear issue will be lifted simultaneous with the completion, by Iran, of nuclear-related actions addressing all key concerns (enrichment, Fordow, Arak, PMD, and transparency).
  • However, core provisions in the UN Security Council resolutions – those that deal with transfers of sensitive technologies and activities – will be re-established by a new UN Security Council resolution that will endorse the JCPOA and urge its full implementation. It will also create the procurement channel mentioned above, which will serve as a key transparency measure. Important restrictions on conventional arms and ballistic missiles, as well as provisions that allow for related cargo inspections and asset freezes, will also be incorporated by this new resolution.
  • A dispute resolution process will be specified, which enables any JCPOA participant, to seek to resolve disagreements about the performance of JCPOA commitments.
  • If an issue of significant non-performance cannot be resolved through that process, then all previous UN sanctions could be re-imposed.
  • S. sanctions on Iran for terrorism, human rights abuses, and ballistic missiles will remain in place under the deal.

Phasing

  • For ten years, Iran will limit domestic enrichment capacity and research and development – ensuring a breakout timeline of at least one year. Beyond that, Iran will be bound by its longer-term enrichment and enrichment research and development plan it shared with the P5+1.
  • For fifteen years, Iran will limit additional elements of its program. For instance, Iran will not build new enrichment facilities or heavy water reactors and will limit its stockpile of enriched uranium and accept enhanced transparency procedures.
  • Important inspections and transparency measures will continue well beyond 15 years. Iran’s adherence to the Additional Protocol of the IAEA is permanent, including its significant access and transparency obligations. The robust inspections of Iran’s uranium supply chain will last for 25 years.
  • Even after the period of the most stringent limitations on Iran’s nuclear program, Iran will remain a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prohibits Iran’s development or acquisition of nuclear weapons and requires IAEA safeguards on its nuclear program.
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One comment on “Iranian Capitulation

  1. Howard, the arena of cuckoo land has been open for a while and is unfortunately overpopulated

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